Activism Change

::: Sunspot Cycles & Activist Strategy :::

Question:

He also did one on sports.  I was very into it when I started looking for names of some very good players (and a bunch of real all time stars) that just weren’t there.  He chose his people to fit his hypothesis, not to test his hypothesis.  So it was of some interest, but not science.  Pity he didn’t chose objectively (or have someone else chose) and then adjust his hypothesis to fit the evidence, rather than the other way around.

(snips) – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -My only critique of this data is the danger of selection. The events mentioned are all ‘big’ history – i.e. events commonly ascribed as being of great significance. I don’t know whether you’re aware of the work of Michel Gauquelin: he found a correlation between the positions of the planets at the time of birth and the eventual professions of a large group of prominent French people. His study group, if I remember correctly, was selected from a reference work of ‘famous’ people in France. When his study was repeated with the same study group, his correlations were reproduced. When, however, a different group of competent French citizens was studied, little correlation was found. Gauquelin maintained that the correlation only holds for very accomplished sportsmen, scientists, politicians, and the like, and that was why the second group of merely competent people did not show the same level of correlation. No similar correlations were found in subsequent studies with similarly pre-eminent people of other countries. It looks as if Gauquelin’s correlation was some statistical freak of his study group. He was obviously sincere in his efforts as the reference work was a standard text – he thought that letting the book define the study group would avoid the trap of possibly biasing the sample by his own selection criteria.

—– rbc: vixen  (somewhat harmless) 0-0:  The artist formerly known as something else. I only answer my email every few months, on average.   Patience helps.   http://www.visi.com/~cyli

Response:

I’m one of those people who are very sensitive to approaching thunderstorms – I feel terrible for a couple of hours before they arrive and then feel wonderful when they have cleared away. I’ve tried to research these effects in the past but there don’t seem to be any conclusive studies.

As have I…… now I just accept that the mother-in-law…. HAS to make my lifea misery…..;) — AlecX…. the piano`s been my forte…..;)

Response:

The author of the following article and I would both appreciate it if someone would attempt to assess the science involved. If the argument made below is true, it could have important consequences. One explanation — and I believe the most credible — for these increase and decreases in human activism is the 11 year sunspot cycle. Periods of high sunspot activity seem to be correlated with greater mass human activity and excitability, including protests, riots, revolutions and wars; periods of low sunspot cycle with relative quiescence. Is there a link between sunspot activity and human tendencies to mass action and social and political change? And if there is, how can activists use this knowledge to more effectively organize change?

Hello Dan It certainly seems a beguiling hypothesis. Having uncovered a correlation, you really need to propose a credible mechanism – otherwise the correlation could simply be coincidental. Humans are also sensitive to the effects of solar eruptions. Various studies link ultra-violet radiation and changes in magnetic fields to increased metabolism levels or erratic behavior. And it is well known that an increase in negative ions makes us more energetic. Increases in admissions to mental hospitals and in traffic and industrial accidents have been linked to the occurrence of solar flares. Considering that during a period of maximum sunspot activity there may be as many as 200 solar flares in one year, as compared with as few as five during a year of minimum activity, it is not surprising that all these atmospheric disruptions might similarly disrupt human sensibilities.

And here it is! Although I’m not sure how well-established some of the relationships you mention are. I’m one of those people who are very sensitive to approaching thunderstorms – I feel terrible for a couple of hours before they arrive and then feel wonderful when they have cleared away. I’ve tried to research these effects in the past but there don’t seem to be any conclusive studies. To test his hypothesis that sunspot cycle influenced human activity, Tchijevsky constructed an Index of Mass Human Excitability covering each year form 500 BC to 1922 AD. He then investigated the histories of 72 countries during that period, noting signs of human unrest such as wars, revolutions, riots, expeditions and migrations, plus the numbers of humans involved. Tchijevsky found that fully 80% of the most significant events occurred during the 5 years of maximum sunspot activity. (Tchijevsky’s merely noting that the 1917 Russian Revolution occurred during the height of the sunspot cycle earned him almost 30 years in Soviet prisons because his theory challenged Marxist dialectics.)

You’d need to consider the criteria used to calculate the Tchijevsky Index of Mass Human Excitability – it could be that his correlation is an artefact of one or more of the parameters he selected. Tchijevsky did not believe solar disturbances caused discontent as much as they acted as detonators that set off the smoldering discontent of the masses — discontent often channeled into war by their rulers.  Nor did he deny that even during minimum solar activity some people would rebel against intolerable conditions or that nations would seek advantage through war and conquest.

Yes, what’s being said here is not that the sunspots *cause* the unrest but that the extra personal stresses on individuals combine to tip precariously-balanced societies over the edge into decisive action. The Evidence Sunspot Height Years       Events Just Before or During Height

My only critique of this data is the danger of selection. The events mentioned are all ‘big’ history – i.e. events commonly ascribed as being of great significance. I don’t know whether you’re aware of the work of Michel Gauquelin: he found a correlation between the positions of the planets at the time of birth and the eventual professions of a large group of prominent French people. His study group, if I remember correctly, was selected from a reference work of ‘famous’ people in France. When his study was repeated with the same study group, his correlations were reproduced. When, however, a different group of competent French citizens was studied, little correlation was found. Gauquelin maintained that the correlation only holds for very accomplished sportsmen, scientists, politicians, and the like, and that was why the second group of merely competent people did not show the same level of correlation. No similar correlations were found in subsequent studies with similarly pre-eminent people of other countries. It looks as if Gauquelin’s correlation was some statistical freak of his study group. He was obviously sincere in his efforts as the reference work was a standard text – he thought that letting the book define the study group would avoid the trap of possibly biasing the sample by his own selection criteria. The trouble with assessing the ‘big’ events in history is that these have already been pre-selected by historians as being of significance. Wars are continually occurring all around the world – the only ones we get to hear about are those deemed to be of consequence to our societies. It’s hard to define what is important history without making some sort of value judgement. I suspect that there’s a lot more ‘noise’ in the data than the table suggests. The only other possible explanation I can come up with at the moment is that it could be some cycling of the zeitgeist. When news of a revolt or riot spreads around the world other people are persuaded to follow suit. In 1981 there were a number of riots in British towns and cities that were ostensibly racially-based when they began. It was a time of rising unemployment and falling inner-city prosperity; I suspect that many of the later riots were nothing more than copycat incidents by disaffected youths who fancied going on the rampage and indulging in a spot of easy looting. (By the way, 1982 saw the Falklands War between the UK and Argentina. The riots of 1981 and the war of 1982 were hugely important in Britain, with the war being credited with the continuation of Margaret Thatcher as the British Prime Minister for the remainder of the 1980s, yet both seeming occurred during a decrease period.) It could be that the idea of public action rapidly spreads around the world and, when nothing positive is seen to emerge, a period of calm follows – a sort of world-wide Mexican Wave. It could be a purely sociological phenomenon with its own in-built period rather than an externally mediated influence. Just a thought! John

Response:

The author of the following article and I would both appreciate it if someone would attempt to assess the science involved. If the argument made below is true, it could have important consequences. SUNSPOT CYCLES AND ACTIVIST STRATEGY by Carol Moore In the mid-1980s, writing in two small radical publications, I predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union and freedom for eastern Europe for the exact month that it did in fact happen. I did not predict it specifically for November of 1989. I predicted it for the height of the next sunspot cycle. The height occured in November of 1989. And, as this article argues, this was no coincidence. Considering that we are now are in the height of another sunspot cycle, a time of maximum human excitability, of mass demonstrations, riots, revolutions and wars, it is wise to look at the evidence that these cycles have influenced all of human history — and to learn the implications of these cycles for activist organzing. Below is my analysis, with                           * * * In an October 11, 1989 Washington Post editorial,

Filed under: Global Activism

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